Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013
On Aug. 16, Tyler Ennis committed to join the Syracuse Orange and headline its 2013 recruiting class. The 6’2″ Canadian point guard (ranked No. 7 at his position by ESPN) set off a mini social media firestorm, with many fans and journalists proclaiming a coup for coach Jim Boeheim, and illuminating fantasies of grandeur and point guard brilliance from the moment Ennis will step onto campus.
Ennis will be very good—eventually.
Let’s all take a deep breath, put down the Kool-Aid, and look at this objectively. What kind of freshman player will Ennis be in 2013?
Well, the last time a freshman stepped onto the Carrier Dome court to immediately become a lead contributor was during the 2007-2008 season. Donte Greene and Johnny Flynn led the Orange on the floor –all the way to a 9-9 Big East record and a disappointing NIT Quarterfinals exit. Not exactly a successful campaign by the lofty Syracuse standards.
In fact, you’d have to go back 10 years, to the championship season of 2002-2003 to find a successful example of a freshman immediately producing during a successful season. And, let’s be fair, Carmelo Anthony and Gerry McNamara were not your average freshmen.
» More from Matt Goodman: Expect the unexpected from SU in 2012-13
Still, Boeheim has proven over the years that he’ll play his freshmen and stick with them to some extent. Fab Melo (the No.1 center in his class) in 2010-2011 started 24 times; Rakeem Christmas (No. 2 center) in 2011-2012 started 35 out of 37 games. Neither player had much success though, nor were they played more than 11.5 minutes per game.
Melo of course broke out last season, as did Dion Waiters (No 2. Shooting guard) and CJ Fair (No. 13 small forward). Of the three freshmen during that 2010-2011 season, Fair is the one who actually logged the most minutes and greatest production across the board. Of course in year two, Waiters and Melo proved themselves to be NBA ready, while Fair is back for his junior year as a focal point of the Orange attack.
The jury is out, of course, on Christmas and returning No. 4 shooting guard recruit, Michael Carter-Williams. Both struggled during their freshmen seasons, but are expected to have bigger roles this year. That fits the pattern for the past four seasons: freshmen lying in wait and learning the ropes while sophomores and upperclassmen lead the way.
It’s not so much a result of the talent level of the freshmen, as it is the depth of the roster as a whole. Boeheim has been lauded for the past few seasons for fielding 10 deep teams, as opposed to his traditional seven to eight man rotations.
» More SU basketball: Predicting Syracuse’s wins for the 2012-13 season
The last time the Orange employed a small rotation was in 2009-2010, when freshmen Brandon Triche started all 35 games for a sweet sixteen team and played 21 minutes per game. However, he was the sixth or seventh offensive option on a team that only played seven players consistently all year.
A season like Triche’s might be a more reasonable expectation for Ennis, rather than one like Anthony and McNamara, or even Greene and Flynn. But even that type of season seems far-fetched due to a lack of opportunity because of returning upperclassmen.
Last year alone the Orange had three McDonald’s All-Americans, each of whom were graded higher than Ennis by ESPN, who essentially rode the bench for the entire season. One of them, Trevor Cooney, was red-shirted due to a lack of playing time available.
So before we anoint Ennis as the point guard savior, let’s face the facts. Ennis may be talented and he seemingly has a bright future ahead of him, but he’s not Carmelo Anthony. And his team, in all likelihood, will be much better than the one Flynn and Greene inherited. Reality needs to outweigh fantasy, and expectations should be tempered… For now.
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Tags: Basketball, Syracuse, Tyler Ennis
More From: Matt Goodman
how exactly did Michael Carter-Williams struggle? Check is stats for minutes played. I think Boeheim struggled with being loyal to Scoop and trusting a guard who did prove himself. Playing short minutes is difficult to do and perform. Check MCW’s assist to turnover ration….
Fair point, Lisa. Struggled for minutes may have been more specific.
This question isn’t meant to be snarky, but where has Ennis been hailed as a PG savior? I’m pumped for MCW to run the offense, and while it’s possible for him to go NBA after this season, it’s less likely than not. I continue to enjoy having high level recruits be excited about coming SU and encouraging others to do the same in order to increase their chances of success together. I think that is what is exciting about him. Also, continuing the dominion of the Otto-man Empire over Cananda. :)
I’m a lot more excited for the top recruits Ennis is close with, who he might persuade to join SU. That’s been the extent of my excitement.
Yeah saviors are for down programs. I think the point Matt was trying to make is that he’s a five star recruit but won’t pay dividends right away. Not because he’s not good, but because there will probably be other guys ahead of him. Kinda like MCW this year. I think MCW could’ve been a top frosh but the team was too deep for Jimmy B to find minutes.
No one is proclaiming him a savoir, I think your drinking some sort of koolaid. I have know doubt that ennis is an elite talent at the pg position and can contribute right away though. He may even lead the big east in assists his freshman year, he has Kendall Marshall type skills with a better jump shot. To say people shouldn’t be excited is idiotic, and to say that the only reason you are excited is for the other player he might help get is even more so. Also your whole freshman theory is pretty dumb, brandon Triche lead this team to a pretty good record his first year if I’m rembering correctly, or did you forget about that, and there have been countless others who have had huge impacts on the teams success, cj fair for example. Throw around Greene and Flynn all you want but they had no where near the amount of talent this team has had recently and ennis will certainly be surrounded with that as well. Anyways the one freshman everyone should be excited about is dajuan Coleman he has dominated elite completion since his early teens, is in shape now and will likely be the best su freshman since Carmelo Anthony, people will say he fell of in his rankings but the only reason for that was him spending time on his studies after the season instead of making the usual rounds to get the exposure, he had finished his season as a top 5 talent
Kevin… Lead the league in assists? Calm down a bit there. Whether Ennis can even come close to leading the league in assists will depend on MCW. If he has a breakout soph year and sticks around junior year, and if Cooney is playing big minutes too, Ennis won’t start like Triche did and will only have a minor impact. But if MCW leaves, Ennis could put up big numbers right away. Personally, I hope it’s the first, because if MCW stays three years, watch out. Would love to see Ennis develop a year and then take the reigns.